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Embrace uncertainty as a guiding principle in decisionmaking from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
When we make decisions, we are essentially placing bets on a certain outcome. We can never be completely certain about the outcome of our decisions, no matter how confident we may feel. Embracing uncertainty as a guiding principle in decision-making means acknowledging that there is always a level of unpredictability and risk involved in every choice we make. By accepting uncertainty, we are more open to considering different perspectives and possibilities. We become less attached to our own beliefs and more willing to update our thinking based on new information. This flexibility allows us to make better decisions in the face of ambiguity and complexity. Uncertainty can be uncomfortable and unsettling, but it is a natural part of the decision-making process. Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, we should learn to navigate it effectively. This involves being willing to admit when we don't know something and being open to revising our beliefs in light of new evidence. Making decisions in the face of uncertainty requires a certain degree of humility. We must recognize that our knowledge is limited and that there is always a chance that our predictions will be wrong. By approaching decision-making with a sense of humility, we can avoid overconfidence and be more open to considering alternative viewpoints.- Embracing uncertainty as a guiding principle in decision-making can lead to better outcomes. By being willing to acknowledge the limitations of our knowledge and accept the inherent risks of making decisions, we can make more informed choices and adapt more effectively to changing circumstances.
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