The narrative fallacy leads us to construct retrospective explanations from "summary" of The Black Swan: Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Human beings possess a profound need to impose order on chaos, crafting stories that provide coherence to the unpredictable events of life. This propensity drives individuals to create narratives that link disparate occurrences, often leading to misleading conclusions about causality. When reflecting on past events, the mind seeks to weave these threads into a seamless tapestry, ignoring the randomness and uncertainty that originally characterized them. By constructing these stories, people fall into the trap of believing that they understand the complexities of the world. Instead of acknowledging the role of chance, they attribute events to clear causes. This can result in misguided confidence in predictive abilities, fostering a false sense of security regarding future outcomes. The ease with which narratives are formed can mask the true nature of events, as indiv...
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