The outside view can provide valuable insights for forecasting from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
When it comes to making forecasts, it is easy to get caught up in our own perspectives and biases. We tend to rely heavily on our internal knowledge and experiences, which can sometimes lead us astray. However, looking at the outside view can provide us with valuable insights that we may have overlooked otherwise. The outside view involves stepping back and considering the broader context surrounding the situation we are trying to forecast. By looking at similar past events or situations, we can gain a better understanding of potential outcomes and factors that may influence them. This helps us to make more informed and accurate predictions. One of the key benefits of the outside view is that it can help us to avoid the ...
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