Belief updating is crucial for improving forecast accuracy from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Belief updating is the cornerstone of accurate forecasting. It involves constantly revising your opinions and predictions based on new information that becomes available. This process is essential because the world is constantly changing, and events are unfolding in unpredictable ways. By updating your beliefs, you can adapt to these changes and make more accurate forecasts. When you update your beliefs, you are essentially refining your mental models of how the world works. This allows you to make more precise predictions about future events. By incorporating new information into your thinking, you can spot trends and patterns that were previously hidden. This gives you a competitive edge in forecasting, as you are more likely to make accurate predictions based on...
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