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Consider multiple possible outcomes from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
When we make decisions, we often fall into the trap of thinking in binary terms - either something will happen or it won't. This kind of all-or-nothing thinking can lead us astray because the world is rarely so black and white. The reality is that most decisions we make have multiple possible outcomes, each with its own probability of occurring. By considering multiple possible outcomes, we can make more informed decisions based on a more accurate assessment of the probabilities involved. This allows us to see the shades of gray in between the extremes of success and failure. For example, if we are considering whether to invest in a particular stock, instead of simply thinking about whether the stock will go up or down, we can consider a range of possible outcomes - the stock might skyrocket, it might stay flat, or it might plummet. Thinking in terms of multiple possible outcomes forces us to confront the uncertainty that is inherent in decision-making. It requires us to acknowledge that we cannot predict the future with certainty, but we can make educated guesses based on the information available to us. This approach allows us to be more flexible in our thinking and more resilient in the face of uncertainty. When we consider multiple possible outcomes, we are better able to assess the risks and rewards of a decision. We can weigh the likelihood of each outcome and the potential impact it will have on our goals. This more nuanced understanding of the situation allows us to make decisions that are better aligned with our objectives. In the end, considering multiple possible outcomes is about embracing uncertainty and making peace with the fact that we cannot control everything. It is a recognition that life is full of unknowns and that the best we can do is to make the most informed decisions we can based on the information available to us. By thinking in bets and considering multiple possible outcomes, we can increase our chances of success and navigate the uncertainties of life with greater confidence.
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