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Recognize the clustering illusion from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
Our minds are pattern-seeking machines. We are wired to find meaning in randomness, to see order where there is none. This tendency leads us to believe in the clustering illusion - the mistaken idea that random events are not random at all, but rather part of a pattern or trend. When we see clusters of events occurring close together in time or space, we assume there must be a connection between them. We look for reasons, for explanations, for causes. We convince ourselves that there is a hidden order to the chaos, that everything is connected in some meaningful way. This illusion can lead us astray, causing us to make faulty assumptions and poor decisions. For example, if we hear about several plane crashes in a short period, we may become convinced that flying is dangerous and avoid it altogether. Or if we notice a series of lucky coincidences, we may start to believe in fate or destiny. In reality, however, most of the time these clusters are just random fluctuations, statistical noise. They do not indicate any underlying pattern or trend. They are simply the result of chance, of the inherent randomness of the world. To avoid falling into the trap of the clustering illusion, we must train ourselves to think critically, to question our assumptions, to look for evidence rather than rely on intuition or gut feeling. We must be skeptical of patterns that seem too good to be true, that do not hold up under closer scrutiny. By recognizing the clustering illusion for what it is - a trick of the mind, a cognitive bias - we can avoid making hasty judgments, jumping to conclusions, or falling for superstitions. We can see the world as it truly is, a place of randomness and uncertainty, where not everything is connected or has a deeper meaning.
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