Superforecasting requires balancing between overconfidence and underconfidence from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasting is not about making wild guesses or blindly following gut instincts. It is a disciplined approach that involves carefully weighing the evidence and considering all possible outcomes. In order to be a successful superforecaster, one must strike a delicate balance between overconfidence and underconfidence. Overconfidence can lead to reckless decision-making and a failure to consider alternative perspectives. It can blind one to the limitations of their knowledge and prevent them from critically evaluating their own beliefs. On the other hand, underconfidence can result in missed opportunities and a reluctance to take calculated risks. It can also hinder one's ability to adapt to new information and adjust their forecasts accordingly. Superforecasters understand the importance of maintaining a healthy skepticism without succumbing to excessive doubt. They are willing to challenge their own assumptions and seek out diverse viewpoints to inform their predictions. By constantly reassessing their confidence levels and being open to revising their forecasts, superforecasters are able to avoid the pitfalls of both overconfidence and underconfidence. To achieve this balance, superforecasters rely on a combination of analytical rigor, humility, and intellectual curiosity. They are not afraid to admit when they are wrong or uncertain, and they actively seek out feedback to improve their forecasting skills. By cultivating a mindset that is both confident and cautious, superforecasters are able to make more accurate predictions and outperform their peers. In the world of forecasting, striking the right balance between overconfidence and underconfidence is essential for success. By being aware of the dangers of both extremes and actively working to mitigate them, superforecasters are able to navigate uncertainty with confidence and precision.
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