Always consider the base rate when making decisions from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
When faced with a decision, it is crucial to always consider the base rate. The base rate is the basic probability of an event happening in a general population. It provides a reference point from which to evaluate the likelihood of an outcome. Ignoring the base rate can lead to errors in judgment and decision-making.
For example, let's say you meet someone who is dressed in a suit and tie, carrying a briefcase. Based on these visual cues, you might assume that this person is a lawyer. However, if you fail to consider the base rate – the fact that only a small percentage of people in the general population are lawyers – you might be making a biased judgment.
In another scenario, let's consider a...
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