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Use premortems to identify potential pitfalls from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
Imagine you are about to make a decision with potentially serious consequences. Before pulling the trigger, it would be wise to pause and consider the possible pitfalls that could lie ahead. This is where the concept of premortems comes into play. Instead of waiting for a failed outcome to analyze what went wrong, a premortem flips the script by prompting you to envision all the ways things could go awry before they actually do. By conducting a premortem, you are essentially giving yourself the opportunity to preemptively identify and address potential pitfalls that may derail your plans. This exercise forces you to think critically about the various factors that could lead to failure, allowing you to develop strategies to mitigate these risks. In essence, a premortem serves as a preemptive strike against the uncertainties and blind spots that can cloud your judgment when making important decisions. The beauty of...
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