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Overestimating causal influences leads to superstitions from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The human mind is a pattern-seeking machine, constantly searching for causal relationships in the world around us. When events happen in close succession, our minds quickly jump to the conclusion that one event caused the other. This tendency to overestimate causal influences can lead us down the path of superstition. Superstitions are born out of our innate need to make sense of the world and exert a sense of control over our lives. When we believe that certain actions or rituals can influence future events, we are falling into the trap of overestimating causal connections. This can lead to the development of irrational beliefs that have no basis in reality. In reality, many events in our lives are simply due to chance or random coincidence. However, our minds are wired to see patterns even where none exist. This cognitive bias can lead us to create superstitions based on false causal relationships. For example, if a student wears a lucky shirt to an exam and performs well, they may attribute their success to the shirt rather than their own hard work and preparation. This overestimation of the shirt's influence can lead to the development of a superstition that wearing the shirt will always bring good luck. It is essential to be aware of our tendency to overestimate causal influences and resist the temptation to ascribe meaning where there is none. By acknowledging the role of chance and randomness in our lives, we can avoid falling into the trap of superstition and make more rational decisions based on evidence and logic.
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