Baserate neglect overlooks probabilities from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow... in 30 Minutes by 30 Minute Expert Summary Staff
Baserate neglect is a common cognitive bias that occurs when people rely too heavily on specific information and ignore broader statistical data. This bias causes individuals to overlook probabilities and make decisions based on limited information, leading to errors in judgment. For example, when diagnosing a patient with a rare disease, doctors may focus on the specific symptoms presented by the patient without considering the low probability of actually having that disease. This concept can be explained through the example of a fictional town named Riverside, where 85% of the population has brown hair and 15% has blonde hair. If someone is described as having a bubbly personality and a love for outdoor activities, people may incorrectly assume that the person is more likely to be blonde, even though the...
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