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Hindsight bias distorts our memory of past events from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Hindsight bias distorts the way we remember past events. When we look back on a situation, we tend to believe that we knew all along how things would turn out. This creates a sense of inevitability that changes our memory of what actually happened. We forget the uncertainty and confusion we experienced at the time, and instead convince ourselves that we accurately predicted the outcome. This bias can have significant implications for decision-making. When we misremember our past decisions as being more predictable than they actually were, we become overconfident in our abilities. This can lead us to make risky choices based on faulty assumptions about our own foresight. In reality, we may have simply been lucky in the past, but hindsight bias makes us believe that we possess more knowledge and skill than we actually do. Hindsight bias is closely related to the concept of cognitive ease. When we look back on a situation, our minds automatically smooth out the rough edges and simplify the narrative. This makes the past seem more orderly and predictable than it actually was. We edit out the doubts and uncertainties that we experienced in the moment, creating a false sense of clarity and coherence in our memories. In order to combat hindsight bias, we need to actively challenge our assumptions about past events. Instead of accepting our memories at face value, we should strive to remember the complexity and confusion that we actually experienced. By acknowledging the uncertainty of the past, we can avoid falling into the trap of overconfidence and make more informed decisions in the future.- Hindsight bias distorts our memory of past events by creating a sense of inevitability and overconfidence. By recognizing this bias and actively challenging our assumptions, we can gain a more realistic understanding of our own decision-making processes and avoid making the same mistakes in the future.
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