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Calibration of confidence is vital for accurate predictions from "summary" of Thinking Fast and Slow by Book Summary
The accuracy of our predictions hinges on our ability to calibrate our confidence levels accordingly. It is not enough to simply make a prediction; we must also assess how confident we are in that prediction. Without this calibration, our forecasts are prone to errors and inaccuracies. When we overestimate our confidence in a prediction, we run the risk of being blindsided by unforeseen outcomes. This overconfidence can lead us to make rash decisions or overlook crucial information that contradicts our initial assessment. By calibrating our confidence levels, we can avoid falling into this trap and make more accurate predictions. Conversely, underestimating our confidence can also be detrimental. When we lack confidence in our predictio...
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