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Forecasting is uncertain and should be approached cautiously from "summary" of The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks
Forecasting involves predicting future events based on current and past information, yet it is inherently fraught with uncertainty. The future is influenced by countless variables, many of which are unpredictable. Assumptions made today can easily become obsolete tomorrow, leading to significant deviations from expected outcomes. The reliance on models and historical data can create a false sense of security. While they provide valuable insights, they cannot account for every possibility. Events such as financial crises, political upheavals, or technological breakthroughs can disrupt even the most carefully constructed forecasts. Thus, it becomes essential to recognize the limitations of a...
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