Regular feedback and adjustment are key to improving forecasting skills from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
The road to becoming a better forecaster is paved with regular feedback and adjustment. It is not enough to simply make predictions and hope for the best. One must be willing to engage in a continuous process of learning and adaptation. Feedback is essential because it provides valuable information about the accuracy of one's forecasts. Without feedback, it is difficult to know whether one's predictions are on target or completely off the mark. By receiving feedback on past forecasts, one can gain insights into what went right and what went wrong, allowing for adjustments to be made in future predictions. Adjustment is the natural next step after receiving feedback. It involves taking the lessons learned from past forecasts and applying them to improve future predictions. This could mean tweaking one's forecasting methods, incorporating new information, or adjusting one's mindset. The key is to be flexible and open to change. Regular feedback and adjustment go hand in hand. Without feedback, it is impossible to know what adjustments need to be made. And without adjustment, feedback becomes meaningless. It is a continuous cycle of learning and improvement that is essential for honing forecasting skills. By embracing regular feedback and adjustment, one can become a superforecaster - someone who consistently makes accurate predictions. It is not an easy path, but it is a rewarding one. The journey towards becoming a better forecaster is filled with challenges and setbacks, but with perseverance and a willingness to learn, one can overcome these obstacles and emerge as a master of prediction.
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