Keeping track of past predictions can help improve future forecasting accuracy from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
The idea that looking back at previous predictions can enhance our ability to make more accurate forecasts in the future is a central theme in the book "Superforecasting." By analyzing past predictions and outcomes, we can identify patterns and trends that can inform our decision-making processes moving forward. This process allows us to learn from our mistakes and successes, ultimately leading to more refined and precise predictions. One key aspect of this concept is the importance of keeping detailed records of our forecasts and the corresponding outcomes. By maintaining a comprehensive record of our predictions, we can track our accuracy over time and identify areas where we may need to improve. This level of accountability not only helps us stay focused on the task at hand but also encourages us to cont...
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