Cognitive biases can hinder forecasting accuracy from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Cognitive biases are like a fog that clouds our ability to accurately predict the future. These biases are mental shortcuts that our brains rely on to make sense of a complex world, but they can lead us astray when it comes to forecasting. One common bias is confirmation bias, where we seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them. This can prevent us from adjusting our forecasts in light of new information, leading to inaccurate predictions. Another bias that can hinder forecasting accuracy is overconfidence. When we are overconfident in our predictions, we are less likely to seek out alternative viewpoints or consider the possibility that we might be wrong. This can blind us to potential pit...
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