Calibration is essential for accurate forecasting from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Calibration is a fundamental aspect of accurate forecasting. It is the ability to consistently assign probabilities to different outcomes that reflect the true likelihood of those outcomes occurring. In the world of forecasting, being well-calibrated means that your predictions are not only accurate but also reliable. When a forecaster is well-calibrated, it means that if they were to make 100 predictions with a probability of 70%, roughly 70 of those predictions would come true. This is important because it indicates that the forecaster has a good understanding of the uncertainty surrounding their predictions and is able to account for it in a meaningful way. Without calibration, a forecaster's predictions may be accurate in the short term due to luck or other factors, but over the long term, their predictions will not hold up. This is because without calibration, there is no way to know if a forecaster's predictions are based on actual knowledge or simply random chance. Being well-calibrated requires a certain level of self-awareness and humility. It means being able to acknowledge when you are uncertain about a prediction and adjusting your probabilities accordingly. It also means being able to learn from your mistakes and update your beliefs based on new information.- Being well-calibrated is a valuable skill that can set you apart from other forecasters. It allows you to make more accurate predictions and to have a better understanding of the uncertainty surrounding those predictions. Ultimately, calibration is essential for anyone who wants to be a successful forecaster.
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