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Availability heuristic shapes our perception of risk from "summary" of Predictably Rational? by Richard B. McKenzie
The availability heuristic, one of the many mental shortcuts our brains take to make quick decisions, heavily influences how we perceive risks in our lives. This heuristic relies on the ease with which examples or instances come to mind - the more easily we can recall something, the more we believe it to be common or likely. When we are exposed to vivid, emotionally charged, or recently experienced events, they tend to dominate our thoughts and shape our perceptions of how risky certain activities or situations are. For example, when a plane crash is widely covered by the media, we may become more fearful of flying, even though statistically, air travel is one of the safest modes of transportation. The vivid images and stories of the crash make it more accessible in our minds, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of such an event happening to us. Similarly, if we know someone who has had a negative experience with a particular activity, we are more likely to view it as risky, even if the overall probability of harm is low. This mental shortcut can have significant consequences in how we approach decision-making in our personal and professional lives. If we are constantly bombarded with news stories of shark attacks, for instance, we may avoid going to the beach altogether, despite the extremely low likelihood of being attacked by a shark. This can lead to missed opportunities for enjoyment and growth, as we let our perceptions of risk dictate our actions. To combat the availability heuristic's influence on our perception of risk, it is important to seek out accurate and reliable information, rather than relying solely on what immediately comes to mind. By taking a more deliberate and informed approach to evaluating risks, we can make decisions that are based on evidence and data, rather than on our emotional reactions to sensationalized events. In doing so, we can better navigate the complexities of the world around us and make choices that align with our goals and values.
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