Avoid overconfidence bias from "summary" of Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore
Overconfidence bias can lead us astray. When we are too confident in our abilities or judgments, we are at risk of making costly mistakes. This bias can show up in various aspects of our lives, from investing in the stock market to making decisions at work. It is important to recognize when we may be falling into the trap of overconfidence bias and take steps to avoid it. One way to avoid overconfidence bias is to consider the base rate of success. Instead of focusing solely on our own abilities or track record, we should also take into account the odds of success in a given situation. By looking at the bigger picture, we can gain a ...
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