Predicting future events based on current facts is challenging from "summary" of What If? by Randall Munroe
When we try to predict the future based on what we know now, we run into a lot of difficulties. For one thing, we never have all the information we need. There are always unknown factors that can drastically change the outcome of any given situation. Even if we had all the data in the world, there are still limits to what we can predict. The world is an incredibly complex place, and even the most advanced computer models can't always account for every possible variable. Another challenge we face when trying to predict the future is our own biases and assumptions. We tend to see patterns where there aren't any, and we often let our preconceived notions cloud our judgment. This can lead us to make inaccurate predictions based on faulty reasoning. Additionally, our predictions can be influenced by our emotions, which can skew our perception of reality. Even if we manage to set aside our biases and gather all the relevant data, there are still inherent uncertainties in the world that can throw off our predictions. Chaos theory tells us that even small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes down the line. This means that even the smallest fluctuations in a system can have a huge impact on the future, making it nearly impossible to predict with certainty. In the end, predicting the future is a daunting task that is fraught with challenges. While we can make educated guesses based on current facts, we must always remember that there are limits to what we can know and control. The best we can do is to approach the future with humility and an awareness of our own limitations, knowing that the only constant is change.
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