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Decisions are bets on the future from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
Thinking in bets means recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren't "right" or "wrong" based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. They are simply good or bad based on the information available at the time the decision was made. Embracing uncertainty and acknowledging that we can't predict the future with certainty is essential when thinking in bets. The goal is not to be perfect, but to be less wrong over time. We can't control outcomes, but we can control our decisions. A good decision is one that accurately reflects our beliefs about the future, even if those beliefs turn out to be mistaken. When we think in bets, we see decisions not as the final word, but as a starting point for learning. We c...
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