Decisions are bets on the future from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
Thinking in bets means recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren't "right" or "wrong" based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. They are simply good or bad based on the information available at the time the decision was made. Embracing uncertainty and acknowledging that we can't predict the future with certainty is essential when thinking in bets. The goal is not to be perfect, but to be less wrong over time. We can't control outcomes, but we can control our decisions. A good decision is one that accurately reflects our beliefs about the future, even if those beliefs turn out to be mistaken.
When we think in bets, we see decisions not as the final word, but as a starting point for learning. We can't predict the future, but we can learn from the past. Reflection is crucial for improving decision-making. By evaluating our past decisions and their outcomes, we can adjust our beliefs and strategies going forward. This iterative process allows us to improve our decision-making skills over time. It's about embracing uncertainty, learning from our mistakes, and continuously refining our approach.
Thinking in bets also means recognizing that we can't control luck, but we can control how we respond to it. Luck is a powerful force that influences outcomes, but it doesn't determine the quality of our decisions. By focusing on the process rather than the outcome, we can make better decisions and improve our chances of success. It's about being humble in our beliefs, adaptable in our strategies, and resilient in the face of uncertainty. Thinking in bets is a mindset that allows us to navigate an uncertain world with confidence and clarity.
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