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Consider multiple possible outcomes from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
When we make decisions, we often fall into the trap of thinking in binary terms - either something will happen or it won't. This kind of all-or-nothing thinking can lead us astray because the world is rarely so black and white. The reality is that most decisions we make have multiple possible outcomes, each with its own probability of occurring. By considering multiple possible outcomes, we can make more informed decisions based on a more accurate assessment of the probabilities involved. This allows us to see the shades of gray in between the extremes of success and failure. For example, if we are considering whether to invest in a particular stock, instead of simply thinking about whether the stock will go up or down, we can consider a range of possible outcomes - the stock might skyrocket, it might stay flat, or it might plummet. Thinking in terms of multiple possible outcomes forces us to confront the uncertainty that is inherent in decision-making. It requires us to acknowledge that we cannot predic...
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