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Balance confidence and humility in decisionmaking from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
When we make decisions, we should strive to strike a delicate balance between confidence and humility. Confidence is essential because we need to trust our judgment and have faith in our abilities to make the right choices. However, too much confidence can blind us to potential risks and lead to overconfidence bias, where we believe we know more than we actually do. This can be dangerous as it can cause us to overlook important information and make poor decisions. On the other hand, humility is equally important in decision-making. It allows us to acknowledge our limitations and consider the possibility that we might be wrong. Humility allows us to be open to new information, feedback, and perspectives that can help us make better decisions. Without humility, we are more likely to fall victim to confirmation bias, where we seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them. Balancing confidence and humility in decision-making requires self-awareness and a willingness to challenge our assumptions. We need to constantly question our beliefs and be open to changing our minds in light of new evidence. It's important to approach decisions with a mindset of continuous learning and improvement, rather than a fixed mindset that resists change and growth. By finding the right balance between confidence and humility, we can make more informed and rational decisions. We can avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence and confirmation bias, and instead, embrace uncertainty and complexity with a sense of curiosity and openness. This approach not only leads to better decision-making but also fosters a mindset of lifelong learning and growth.
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