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Avoid the trap of overconfidence from "summary" of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
Overconfidence is a trap that many of us fall into without even realizing it. We tend to believe that we know more than we actually do, and this can lead us to make poor decisions based on faulty assumptions. When we are overconfident, we are less likely to seek out new information or consider alternative viewpoints. We become closed off to feedback and resistant to changing our minds. This is a dangerous mindset to have, especially when we are making high-stakes decisions. It can blind us to the risks and uncertainties that are inherent in any decision-making process. We may overlook important details or fail to consider all possible outcomes. This can lead to costly mistakes and missed opportunities. To avoid the trap of overconfidence, we need to approach decisions with a more humble attitude. We should be open to the idea that we might be wrong and willing to consider di...
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