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Thinking in scenarios can help make better decisions from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Thinking in scenarios involves considering various possible outcomes and their likelihood before making a decision. This method encourages a more comprehensive analysis of a situation, leading to better choices. By imagining different scenarios, individuals can factor in uncertainties and contingencies that may impact the decision. This approach helps to avoid the common cognitive biases that often lead to faulty decision-making. When individuals think in scenarios, they are forced to confront the complexity and uncertainty of real-world situations. This process can reveal hidden assumptions and biases that may have influenced their initial judgments. By considering multiple scenarios, individuals are more likely to make decisions based on a rational assessment of the available information, rather than relying on intu...
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