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Overconfidence is a common mistake in forecasting from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The tendency to be overconfident in our ability to predict future events is a common mistake that we make when making forecasts. This overconfidence can lead us to believe that we have more knowledge and expertise than we actually do, leading to inaccurate predictions. One reason for this overconfidence is the cognitive bias known as the planning fallacy, which causes us to underestimate the time, costs, and risks involved in completing a project. This bias leads us to believe that we can accurately predict the future, when in reality, our forecasts are often overly optimistic. Another factor that contribut...
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