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Cognitive ease leads to overconfidence from "summary" of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The ease with which we can call information to mind often determines our confidence in that information. When a thought comes to mind quickly and easily, we are more likely to trust it. This mental shortcut makes intuitive sense - if something feels familiar and readily available, it must be true. We rely on this feeling of cognitive ease to make quick judgments and decisions in our daily lives. However, cognitive ease can sometimes lead us astray, especially when it comes to more complex or ambiguous situations. When we experience cognitive ease, we tend to underestimate the effort that went into forming our thoughts. We mistake the ease of retrieval for the accuracy of our judgments. This overconfidence can cloud our reasoning and lead us t...
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