Test your hypotheses rigorously from "summary" of Think Like a Freak by Steven D. Levitt,Stephen J. Dubner
When you have an idea or a theory, the next step is to test it rigorously. This means subjecting your hypothesis to a battery of tests and challenges, in order to see if it holds up under scrutiny. In essence, you need to push your idea to its limits, trying to break it in any way possible. This may sound counterintuitive, but it is actually a crucial step in the process of refining and strengthening your hypothesis. One common mistake people make is to only seek out evidence that supports their theory, while ignoring or dismissing anything that contradicts it. This is known as confirmation bias, and it can be a major obstacle to progress. By only focusing on information that aligns with your preconceived notions, you are essentially setting yourself up for failure. Instead, you should actively seek out evidence that challenges your hypothesis, as this will ultimately lead to a more robust and accurate conclusion. Testing your hypotheses rigorously also involves being open to the possibility that you may be wrong. This can be a difficult pill to swallow, especially if you are emotionally invested in your idea. However, being willing to admit when you are mistaken is a sign of intellectual honesty and integrity. It shows that you are committed to the pursuit of truth, rather than simply defending your ego. In order to test your hypotheses rigorously, you may need to employ a variety of tools and techniques. This could include conducting experiments, gathering data, running simulations, or engaging in debates with others who hold different viewpoints. The key is to approach the process with an open mind and a willingness to learn from your mistakes.- The goal of testing your hypotheses rigorously is to arrive at the most accurate and reliable conclusion possible. By subjecting your ideas to thorough scrutiny and challenging them at every turn, you can ensure that your beliefs are based on solid evidence and sound reasoning. This will not only lead to better decision-making in the future, but also help you to think more like a freak – creatively, independently, and fearlessly.
