Don't fall for the correlationcausation fallacy from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
Beware the correlation-causation fallacy. It's a trap we often stumble into when trying to make sense of the world. Just because two things are related doesn't mean that one causes the other. This mistake can lead us to false conclusions and poor decision-making. Consider this example: as ice cream sales go up, so do drowning deaths. Does this mean that eating ice cream causes people to drown? Of course not. The real culprit is the summer heat, which drives people to both eat ice cream and swim. The relationship between ice cream sales and drowning deaths is merely a correlation, not a causation.
To avoid falling for this fallacy, we must be vigilant in our thinking. Whenever we see a correlation, we must ask ourselves: is there a plausible mechanism that could explain the relationship? Without a logical connection between two variables, we cannot assume that one causes the other.
Another pitfall to watch out for is the omission of a third variable that might be driving both the observed correlation. For instance, studies have shown a correlation between children who read well and children who eat breakfast. But the missing piece of the puzzle is likely parental involvement. Children who have parents who care enough to ensure they eat breakfast are also likely to have parents who encourage reading.
In our quest for understanding, we must be wary of jumping to conclusions based on correlations alone. It's a tempting shortcut, but one that can lead us astray. By taking the time to consider alternative explanations and looking for causal mechanisms, we can ensure that our thinking is clear and our decisions are sound. So next time you see a correlation, pause and think before assuming causation. Your mind will thank you.
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