Guard against the influence of the planning fallacy in forecasting from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that affects our ability to accurately predict the amount of time, money, or resources a project will require. When we are planning a new project, we tend to be overly optimistic about how long it will take to complete and how much it will cost. This optimism leads us to underestimate the risks and challenges that may arise during the project, resulting in delays, cost overruns, and other problems. To guard against the influence of the planning fallacy in forecasting, it is important to take a step back and critically evaluate our initial estimates. One way to do this is to gather as much information as possible about similar projects that have been completed in the past. By studying these past projects, we can gain a better understanding of the potential pitfa...
Similar Posts
They understand that time is their most valuable resource
Successful individuals have a deep understanding of the significance of time in their lives. They recognize that time is the on...
Play with people's emotions to control them
Manipulating people's emotions is a powerful tool in controlling them. By understanding their desires, fears, and insecurities,...
Time management is crucial for maximizing productivity
Time management plays a critical role in the success of individuals and organizations. Effective time management can lead to in...
Selfcontrol is essential for overcoming biases
Self-control plays a crucial role in overcoming biases. Our minds are constantly bombarded with information and stimuli, which ...
Overcoming doubts and fears is crucial for success
In order to achieve success, one must first confront and conquer their doubts and fears. These negative emotions can act as bar...
Superforecasters use a variety of techniques to improve their predictions
Superforecasters have a number of techniques at their disposal to enhance the accuracy of their predictions. One such technique...