Guard against the influence of the planning fallacy in forecasting from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that affects our ability to accurately predict the amount of time, money, or resources a project will require. When we are planning a new project, we tend to be overly optimistic about how long it will take to complete and how much it will cost. This optimism leads us to underestimate the risks and challenges that may arise during the project, resulting in delays, cost overruns, and other problems. To guard against the influence of the planning fallacy in forecasting, it is important to take a step back and critically evaluate our initial estimates. One way to do this is to gather as much information as possible about similar projects that have been completed in the past. By studying these past projects, we can gain a better understanding of the potential pitfalls and challenges that may arise during our own project. Another way to guard against the planning fallacy is to involve other people in the planning process. By seeking input from colleagues, experts, or other stakeholders, we can gain valuable insights and perspectives that we may not have considered on our own. This collaborative approach can help us to identify potential blind spots and make more realistic forecasts. It is also important to be vigilant about our own biases and tendencies when making forecasts. We should be aware of our natural inclination to be optimistic about the future and take steps to counteract this bias. By approaching our forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism and realism, we can guard against the influence of the planning fallacy and make more accurate predictions.- Guarding against the influence of the planning fallacy in forecasting requires a combination of critical thinking, collaboration, and self-awareness. By taking a more careful and realistic approach to our predictions, we can avoid the pitfalls of the planning fallacy and make better decisions in the long run.
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