Be mindful of the correlationcausation fallacy when drawing conclusions from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
Beware of the correlation-causation fallacy when drawing conclusions. This is a common error that many people make when they assume that just because two things are related, one must cause the other. This assumption can lead to false conclusions and poor decision-making.
For example, just because there is a correlation between ice cream sales and drowning deaths does not mean that eating ice cream causes people to drown. The real culprit is likely the hot weather that leads people to both eat ice cream and swim more, increasing the likelihood of drowning.
Another classic example is the correlation between the number of storks and the birth rate in a country. Some may mistakenly believe that storks bring babies when, in reality, both are simply related to population size.
To avoid falling into the correlation-causation trap, it is important to consider other factors that may be influencing the relationship between two variables. It is crucial to look for a logical explanation for why one thing might be causing another before jumping to conclusions.
Remember that correlation does not equal causation. Just because two things are related does not mean that one is causing the other. By being mindful of this fallacy, you can make better decisions and think more clearly.
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