Acknowledge the impact of hindsight bias on our judgments from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions by Rolf Dobelli
Hindsight bias is a common cognitive distortion that affects our ability to evaluate past decisions objectively. We tend to believe that events were more predictable than they actually were, once we know the outcome. This can lead us to overestimate our own foresight and ignore the role of chance or uncertainty in the decision-making process.
When we look back on a decision that turned out well, we often attribute our success to skill or knowledge that we may not have actually possessed at the time. This can inflate our confidence in our abilities and make us more likely to take unnecessary risks in the future. On the oth...
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