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Avoid hindsight bias from "summary" of The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
Imagine you are watching a football match. Your team is playing, and the score is tied. Suddenly, the referee makes a questionable call that goes against your team. You are furious and convinced that the referee is biased. After the match, however, you watch the replay and realize that the call was actually correct. How could you have been so wrong? This is a classic case of hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is our tendency to believe that we could have predicted an event after it has already happened. When we look back on a situation, we tend to see it as more predictable than it actually was. This can lead us to believe that we knew all along what the outcome would be, when in reality, we were just as uncertain as everyone else. This bias can be dangerous because it distorts our memory of past events and can lead us to make poor decisions in the future. For example, if we believe that we knew the outcome of a stock market crash before it happened, we may be more likely to take risks with our investments in the future. To avoid falling into the trap of hindsight bias, we must remind ourselves that we did not know the outcome of a situation before it happened. We must resist the temptation to believe that we could have predicted the future based on the information available at the time. By acknowledging our uncertainty and embracing the fact that we cannot predict the future, we can make better decisions and avoid the pitfalls of hindsight bias.
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