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Intelligence explosion potential from "summary" of Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

The notion of an intelligence explosion is rooted in the observation that smarter minds can create even smarter minds, which in turn can create even smarter minds, and so on. At some point in this recursive process, a superintelligence might emerge, one that vastly outstrips the cognitive performance of all biological humans combined. This hypothetical event has been called an "intelligence explosion." The idea is not that a superintelligent system would necessarily immediately launch a decisive global takeover or cause immediate catastrophe. Rather, the intelligence explosion potential refers to the possibility of a positive feedback loop in which self-improving AI becomes ever more powerful. Such a scenario could lead to rapid technological progress, potentially transforming the world beyond recognition. The concept of intelligence explosion potential involves a number of technical subtleties. One key feature is the notion of recursive self-improvement, in which an AI system becomes better at AI design, which in turn enables it to design an even better AI. If this process were to run away unchecked, the results could be explosive. Another crucial aspect is the ability to understand and manipulate complex systems, including those involving other agents. A superintelligent system would likely need to navigate a world filled with competing interests and potential threats, requiring a sophisticated understanding of game theory and strategic thinking. It would also need to be able to predict the consequences of its actions far into the future, taking into account the responses of other agents and the broader socio-political context. The intelligence explosion potential raises profound questions about the nature of intelligence, the limits of human cognition, and the future of civilization. If a superintelligent system were to emerge, it could potentially solve many of the world's most pressing problems, from climate change to disease to poverty. However, it could also pose existential risks, such as the possibility of an uncontrollable AI arms race or the accidental creation of a malevolent superintelligence. The stakes are high, and the path forward is uncertain. In considering the intelligence explosion potential, we must grapple with these profound uncertainties and strive to ensure that the emergence of superintelligent AI is guided by wisdom and compassion.
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    Superintelligence

    Nick Bostrom

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