Using probability estimates can improve forecasting accuracy from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
The idea that probability estimates can enhance forecasting accuracy is a powerful one. By incorporating probabilities into our predictions, we are able to capture the inherent uncertainty of the future. This allows us to make more nuanced and realistic forecasts that take into account all possible outcomes, rather than relying on simplistic binary predictions. When we use probability estimates, we are forced to confront our own uncertainty and ignorance. We are forced to consider the likelihood of different outcomes and weigh them accordingly. This helps us to avoid overconfidence and the pitfalls of overly certain forecasting. By using probability estim...
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