Superforecasting requires balancing between overconfidence and underconfidence from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasting is not about making wild guesses or blindly following gut instincts. It is a disciplined approach that involves carefully weighing the evidence and considering all possible outcomes. In order to be a successful superforecaster, one must strike a delicate balance between overconfidence and underconfidence. Overconfidence can lead to reckless decision-making and a failure to consider alternative perspectives. It can blind one to the limitations of their knowledge and prevent them from critically evaluating their own beliefs. On the other hand, underconfidence can result in missed opportunities and a reluctance to take calculated risks. It can also hinder one's ability to adapt to new information and adjust their forecasts accordingly. Superforecasters understand the importance of maintaining a healthy skepticism without succumbing to excessive doubt. They are willing to challenge their own assumptions and seek...
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