Superforecasting involves making accurate predictions based on careful analysis from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasting is not about having a crystal ball or relying on gut feelings. It's about making accurate predictions through careful analysis of available information. This involves breaking down complex problems into manageable parts and systematically gathering evidence to inform one's predictions. Superforecasters are not swayed by biases or emotions; they approach forecasting with a rational and objective mindset. By continuously updating their forecasts based on new information, superforecasters are able to adapt to changing circumstances and improve the accuracy of their predictions. They are open-minded and willing to consider different perspectives, constantly seeking to refine their understanding of the world. This flexibility allows them to avoid the pitfalls of overco...
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