Superforecasters focus on evidencebased reasoning from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasters are known for their ability to make accurate predictions about future events, and a key factor in their success is their reliance on evidence-based reasoning. This means that they use data, facts, and logic to support their predictions, rather than relying on gut feelings or intuition. By focusing on evidence-based reasoning, superforecasters are able to avoid common cognitive biases that can lead to inaccurate predictions. One of the main reasons why evidence-based reasoning is so important for superforecasters is that it helps them to avoid falling into the trap of overconfidence. By basing their predictions on solid evidence, rather than on their own beliefs or opinions, superforecasters are able to more accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. This helps them to make more realistic and accurate predictions, rather than being swayed by their own biases or wishful thinking. Another benefit of evidence-based reasoning is that it helps super...
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