Superforecasters focus on evidencebased reasoning from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasters are known for their ability to make accurate predictions about future events, and a key factor in their success is their reliance on evidence-based reasoning. This means that they use data, facts, and logic to support their predictions, rather than relying on gut feelings or intuition. By focusing on evidence-based reasoning, superforecasters are able to avoid common cognitive biases that can lead to inaccurate predictions. One of the main reasons why evidence-based reasoning is so important for superforecasters is that it helps them to avoid falling into the trap of overconfidence. By basing their predictions on solid evidence, rather than on their own beliefs or opinions, superforecasters are able to more accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. This helps them to make more realistic and accurate predictions, rather than being swayed by their own biases or wishful thinking. Another benefit of evidence-based reasoning is that it helps superforecasters to be more open-minded and flexible in their thinking. By constantly seeking out new information and updating their predictions based on the latest evidence, superforecasters are able to adapt to changing circumstances and make more informed decisions. This willingness to change their minds in the face of new evidence is a key characteristic of successful forecasters, and it is only possible because they prioritize evidence-based reasoning. In addition to helping superforecasters make more accurate predictions, evidence-based reasoning also helps them to communicate their predictions more effectively. By providing clear and logical reasons for their predictions, superforecasters are able to convince others of the validity of their forecasts, and to persuade skeptics of the soundness of their reasoning. This ability to communicate effectively is crucial for superforecasters, as it allows them to build credibility and influence others in the forecasting community.- Evidence-based reasoning is a fundamental aspect of superforecasting, and it is one of the key reasons why superforecasters are able to consistently outperform other forecasters. By focusing on data, facts, and logic, rather than on intuition or opinion, superforecasters are able to make more accurate predictions, avoid common cognitive biases, adapt to changing circumstances, and communicate their forecasts effectively. This commitment to evidence-based reasoning sets superforecasters apart and allows them to achieve remarkable success in the field of forecasting.
