Superforecasters are openminded and willing to change their opinions from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasters possess a unique quality that sets them apart from others: they are openminded and willing to change their opinions. This flexibility in thinking allows them to adapt to new information and update their forecasts accordingly. They are not afraid to admit when they are wrong or when their initial assessment was off the mark. Instead, they embrace the opportunity to learn and grow from their mistakes. By being openminded, superforecasters are able to consider a wide range of possibilities and perspectives. They do not limit themselves to one point of view but rather seek out diverse sources of information and opinions. This approach helps them see the bigger picture and make more accurate predictions in the long run. They are constantly seeking out new data and feedback to refine their forecasts and improve their decision-making process. In addition to being openminded, superforecasters are also willing to change their opinions based on new evidence. They do not cling to their original beliefs or let ego get in the way of acknowledging when they are wrong. Instead, they approach each situation with humility and a willingness to reevaluate their assumptions. This ability to adapt and adjust their thinking in response to changing circumstances is a key factor in their success as forecasters. Superforecasters understand that the world is complex and constantly evolving. They recognize that uncertainty is inherent in forecasting and that the future is unpredictable. As a result, they approach their work with a sense of humility and a willingness to embrace uncertainty. This mindset allows them to stay agile and responsive in the face of new information, ultimately leading to more accurate and reliable forecasts.- The willingness of superforecasters to be openminded and flexible in their thinking is a key factor in their ability to make accurate predictions. By embracing uncertainty, seeking out diverse perspectives, and being willing to change their opinions based on new evidence, they are able to navigate the complexities of forecasting with skill and precision.
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