Superforecasters are able to remain objective in their predictions from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasters possess a unique ability to maintain objectivity in their predictions. This means they are able to approach each forecasting scenario without being swayed by personal biases or emotions. They are able to separate their own beliefs and desires from the task at hand, allowing them to focus solely on the available evidence and data. By removing their own subjective opinions from the equation, superforecasters are able to make more accurate and reliable predictions. Remaining objective in their predictions also means that superforecasters are open to changing their minds in the face of new information. They do not cling stubbornly to their initial forecasts, but rather adjust them based on the latest evidence. This flexibility allows them to adapt to changing circumstances and make more informed decisions. Superforecasters are not afraid to admit when they are wrong, as they understand that being open-minded and willing to revise their predictions is key to improving accuracy. Furthermore, maintaining objectivity in their predictions enables superforecasters to consider a wide range of possibilities and outcomes. They do not limit themselves to one particular viewpoint or scenario, but instead explore multiple potential outcomes and weigh the likelihood of each. This comprehensive approach allows them to make more nuanced and informed predictions, taking into account a variety of factors that may impact the final outcome.- The ability to remain objective in their predictions sets superforecasters apart from the rest. By approaching each forecasting task with a clear and unbiased mindset, they are able to make more accurate, flexible, and comprehensive predictions. This objectivity allows them to navigate uncertainty with confidence and make informed decisions based on the available evidence.
