Making precise forecasts can lead to greater accuracy from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Being able to make precise forecasts can indeed lead to greater accuracy in predicting future events. When forecasters are able to clearly define the parameters of their predictions, they are more likely to be correct in their assessments. This precision allows them to focus on specific details and factors that can influence the outcome, leading to a more accurate forecast. By making precise forecasts, individuals are able to avoid vague or ambiguous language that can lead to misunderstandings or misinterpretations. This clarity in communication helps to ensure that everyone involved in the forecasting process is on the same page and working towards a common goal of accurate prediction. Additionally, precise forecasts often require forecasters to ...
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