Combining individual forecasts can lead to better predictions from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
When it comes to making predictions, the idea of combining individual forecasts may seem counterintuitive at first. After all, wouldn't it be more efficient to rely on the expertise of a single expert or a small group of experts? The truth is, however, that this approach often falls short when it comes to accuracy and reliability. Individual forecasters, no matter how knowledgeable or experienced they may be, are prone to biases, blind spots, and errors in judgment. By combining the predictions of multiple individuals, each with their unique perspectives and insights, we can mitigate these limitations and arrive at more informed and nuanced forecasts. This diversity of viewpoints helps to uncover blind spots and biases that a single forecaster may overlook, leading to a more comprehensive and accura...
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