Calibration is essential for accurate forecasting from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Calibration is a fundamental aspect of accurate forecasting. It is the ability to consistently assign probabilities to different outcomes that reflect the true likelihood of those outcomes occurring. In the world of forecasting, being well-calibrated means that your predictions are not only accurate but also reliable. When a forecaster is well-calibrated, it means that if they were to make 100 predictions with a probability of 70%, roughly 70 of those predictions would come true. This is important because it indicates that the forecaster has a good understanding of the uncertainty surrounding their predictions and is able to account for i...
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