We base our predictions of future happiness on faulty information from "summary" of Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert
Our ability to imagine future scenarios is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it allows us to plan, set goals, and strive for a better tomorrow. On the other hand, our predictions of future happiness are often clouded by faulty information. We tend to rely on inaccurate memories of past experiences, biased beliefs, and unrealistic expectations when envisioning what will make us happy in the future. When predicting our future emotions, we tend to focus on the wrong factors. We mistakenly believe that external circumstances such as wealth, success, or relationships will be the key to our happiness. However, research has shown that these factors have a much smaller impact on our overall well-being than we think. In fact, our level of happiness tends to return to a baseline after major life events, whether positive or negative. Our tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future events is known as impact bias. We believe that winning the lottery will bring ...
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