Think in terms of probabilities, not absolutes from "summary" of Poor Charlie's Almanack by Charles T. Munger
When facing a decision, it is crucial to remember that there are very few absolutes in life. The world is a complex and uncertain place, and it is rare to have complete certainty about anything. Instead of thinking in terms of black and white, we should shift our mindset to consider probabilities. By focusing on probabilities, we acknowledge that most decisions are not clear-cut and require a level of uncertainty. It allows us to embrace the shades of gray that exist in every situation. This approach encourages us to consider various possible outcomes and weigh the likelihood of each one happening. When we think in terms of probabilities, we are better equipped to make more informed decisions. We can assess the risks and rewards associated with each choice and make a decision based on the likelihood of success. This helps us avoid the trap of thinking that there is only one right answer. Furthermore, thinking in probabilities helps us become more adaptable and open-minded. We are more willing to change course if new information arises, as we understand that our initial assessment was based on probabilities, not absolutes. This flexibility is key to navigating the unpredictable nature of life.- Embracing probabilities over absolutes allows us to approach decision-making with a more realistic and nuanced perspective. It encourages us to consider the uncertainties and complexities of the world and make choices based on a thorough assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes. This mindset shift can lead to more effective decision-making and ultimately better outcomes in the long run.
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