Confidence should be based on evidence from "summary" of Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore
Confidence should be based on evidence. It’s a simple concept, really. When we have evidence to support our beliefs, we can be more confident in them. This is logical and rational. Think about it - if you have evidence that a certain stock is likely to perform well, you would feel more confident investing in it, right?But sometimes, we forget this basic principle. We let our emotions, biases, and heuristics cloud our judgment. We make decisions based on gut feelings or past experiences, without considering whether we have solid evidence to support our beliefs. This is where we run into trouble. When our confidence is not based on evidence, we are more likely to make mistakes. We are more prone to overconfidence, to taking unnecessary risks, and to ignoring warning signs. In short, we set ourselves up for failure. So how can we avoid this trap? By making a conscious effort to base our confidence on evidence. This means taking the time to gather all relevant information, weighing the evidence carefully, and making an informed decision. It means being open to new information and revising our beliefs in light of new evidence. This is not always easy. It requires discipline, critical thinking, and a willingness to admit when we are wrong. But the payoff is worth it. When our confidence is based on evidence, we can make better decisions, achieve our goals, and ultimately, be more successful. So the next time you find yourself feeling confident, ask yourself - is this confidence based on evidence? If not, take a step back, gather more information, and reassess. Your future self will thank you for it.
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